More Auctions, But Fewer Clearances: A Market Pulling in Different Directions
Capital-city auction activity picked up last week, but the extra volume did not translate into stronger results. There were 1,882 auctions across the capitals, up 33.1% on the previous week, while the preliminary clearance rate eased to 48.4% from 51.2%. It has now been below 50% in three of the past four weeks.
The contrast with a year ago is striking: auction volumes were 41.8% lower, and the preliminary combined clearance rate was 66.7% at the same time last year. City results also diverged. Melbourne’s 54.8% clearance rate was the strongest among the major capitals, while Brisbane recorded 25.2%.
There is a similar split in home values. The combined-capital index fell 1.3% over the latest 28 days, compared with a 0.7% decline across the combined regional markets. Year-to-date movements range from falls in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne to gains in Adelaide and Perth. More auctions, then, do not yet point to a broad-based strengthening: the direction depends on the city and the indicator being considered.
What This Means For
First Home Buyers
A preliminary clearance rate below 50%, combined with total capital-city listings 20.7% above a year ago, suggests there may be room to compare options and negotiate in some areas. But it is not a uniform buyer’s market: Melbourne’s clearance result was well above Brisbane’s, and local conditions may differ from the citywide figure. The useful question is how the specific property is performing against alternatives nearby.
Investors
Rental figures offer a different signal from the softer short-term home-value movements. The national median rent was $713, up 5.5% over the year to September, while combined-capital gross yields were 3.7% and vacancy rates were 1.6%. These are broad measures, not a return forecast for an individual property. City results vary: annual rent growth ranged from 3.1% in Canberra to 11.6% in Darwin, so location matters to the income picture.
Up-Sizers
With capital values down 1.3% over 28 days and total advertised stock higher than a year ago, some buyers may find more choice than in a tighter market. But a softer value trend can affect both the home being sold and the one being purchased. The city and property type matter: the report’s year-to-date figures show declines in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, but gains in Adelaide and Perth.
Auction Clearances In Select Markets
Melbourne hosted 831 auctions, up from 495 the previous week, and recorded a 54.8% preliminary clearance rate. Its citywide result masks a wide sub-regional spread: the North East reached 64.3%, while the North West was 38.4%. Sydney’s 631 auctions produced a 48.2% rate, its first preliminary result below 50% in twelve weeks. Within Sydney, the Eastern Suburbs recorded 60.7%, compared with 18.2% in the Outer West and Blue Mountains.
Brisbane’s 25.2% clearance rate was the weakest capital-city result, while the Gold Coast recorded 25.4% across 85 auctions. These figures are preliminary and should be read as a snapshot, not a definitive ranking—especially in smaller markets. Cotality publishes final clearance rates on Thursdays.
Key Market Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Capital-city auctions | 1,882 | +33.1% week on week; -41.8% year on year |
| Preliminary clearance rate | 48.4% | 51.2% previous week; 66.7% same week last year |
| Home values, combined capitals | -1.3% | 28-day rolling change |
| Homes for sale, combined capitals | 24,223 new; 91,052 total | 28 days to 25 October |
| Listings, combined capitals | New -16.9%; total +20.7% | 12-month change |
| National median rent | $713 per week | +5.5% year on year; data to September |
The listings figures show two different things: the flow of new properties was lower than a year ago, while the total pool of advertised homes was larger. That combination can mean buyers encounter more existing stock even as fewer newly advertised properties arrive. Meanwhile, rental growth and the short-term home-value declines describe different parts of the market, and should not be mistaken for a single national trend.
Questions We’re Hearing
Does the jump in auctions mean the market is turning?
Not by itself. Volumes rose sharply week on week, but remained 41.8% below the same week last year, and the preliminary clearance rate fell. The report points to a busier week, not clear evidence of a sustained lift in buyer demand.
Are buyers getting more choice?
There are 20.7% more total capital-city listings than a year ago, although new listings over the latest four weeks were down 16.9% year on year. So the total advertised pool is larger, but the flow of newly listed homes is smaller. The balance will differ by location.
Are rents still rising?
Yes, in aggregate: national rents were up 5.5% over the year to September. But monthly movement varied, with Sydney down 0.1% and Darwin up 1.8%. The national figure smooths over these local differences.
The Orchard Lending View
This week’s indicators are not telling one simple story. Auction volumes have rebounded from the previous week, but the clearance rate has weakened; meanwhile, home values have fallen over the latest 28 days, with regional values declining less than capital-city values. A busier auction calendar should not be confused with stronger results.
The broader pattern is just as uneven. Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne are down year to date on Cotality’s home-value figures, while Adelaide and Perth are up. Rental growth remains positive nationally, but its pace differs substantially by city. For buyers and sellers, the national average is a starting point—not a substitute for understanding the local market and the particular property.
For buyers, higher total listings may create opportunities to compare homes, though auction outcomes suggest competition is far from identical across locations. Sellers face a market where city and sub-region results vary, making a single headline clearance rate an unreliable guide to an individual campaign. The evidence supports caution about broad claims of recovery or decline; it does not establish what happens next.
What We’ll Be Watching Next Week
Auction activity – Whether volumes continue to rise, and whether a larger number of auctions is accompanied by a firmer preliminary clearance rate.
Buyer demand – Whether the combined rate moves back above 50% and whether any change is reflected across more than one major capital.
Differences between markets – Whether the gap between Melbourne’s and Brisbane’s results narrows, and whether the wide sub-regional spreads persist.
Listings and rental conditions – Whether the larger pool of homes for sale remains alongside lower new-listing numbers, while rental movements continue to vary across cities.
The key uncertainty is whether last week’s higher auction activity will be followed by stronger selling results. Until that becomes clearer, local differences—not the national headline alone—remain the more useful guide to market conditions.
